Saturday, September 5, 2009

Ryan Howard is a Finisher

Ryan Howard is a finisher. He has been, ever since he arrived in the league in 2005. That season, filling in for an injured Jim Thome, he played a partial season, and won the NL Rookie of the Year award. A season later, the Phillies' first baseman got off to an average start, before really turning it on in what would become his signature, Most Valuable Player campaign. In the last three seasons, Howard has started slow. But when the end of summer approached, and the Phillies reached the playoff atmosphere, the 'Big Man' was at his best.

Obviously, a win in April counts the same as a win in September. The runs produced in those games, that contribute to wins are equally important. It is the pressure and the importance of those runs that is magnified later in the season. Having a player like Ryan Howard on your ball club, who can carry your team for weeks at time, is rare. With all of the Phillies' great hitters, when it comes down to crunch time, they rely on Howard the most. And he delivers.

Ryan Howard's production is unquestioned. Over the course of a full season, he is one of the top run-producers in the game. He is a threat to hit a home run to any field at all times. He is consistently at the top of the league in slugging percentage, runs batted in, and long balls. Take a peak at his statistics over the course of the years, including this year, through Friday's action:

2005: 348 PA, .288 BA, 22 HR, 63 RBI, .567 SLG
2006: 704 PA, .313 BA, 58 HR, 149 RBI, .659 SLG
2007: 648 PA, .268 BA, 47 HR, 136 RBI, .584 SLG
2008: 700 PA, .251 BA, 48 HR, 146 RBI, .543 SLG
2009: 577 PA, .273 BA, 37 HR, 113 RBI, .566 SLG

Let's take a look at Howard's production in the final 60 games of each of his big league seasons. This would normally encompass most of August and September, which has been the stretch-run for the Phillies. Here are his stats, with 2009 being after 102 ball games, to this date:

2005: 227 PA, .301 BA, 16 HR, 44 RBI, .607 SLG
2006: 283 PA, .366 BA, 24 HR, 64 RBI, .755 SLG
2007: 269 PA, .260 BA, 18 HR, 51 RBI, .547 SLG
2008: 256 PA, .281 BA, 19 HR, 58 RBI, .615 SLG
2009: 129 PA, .297 BA, 11 HR, 35 RBI, .669 SLG

With thirty games remaining, Howard is putting together his best late-season run since his MVP season in 2006. But every year, since he began playing full time, is marked by a dramatic increase in production during the final two months of the season. With the Phillies offense struggling down the stretch this year, they will again look to Ryan Howard to pick up the slack.

There's really no trend or explanation for why Howard does better later in the season. Perhaps it is a result of tired pitching arms. It might also have to do with the established hitters around Howard getting more respect, as the season moves on. But more likely than not, it can be said that Howard is a beast, that picks this team up on his shoulders and carries them to the playoffs. He has done it year after year now, and he's doing it again in 2009. We can all just sit back and enjoy the show from the league's premier power hitter.

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