Thursday, October 15, 2009

Phillies Preview: NLCS Game One

National League Championship Series - Game One
Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) v. Los Angeles Dodgers (0-0)
Thursday October 15, 2009 - 8:07pm ET
Dodger Stadium, Dodgertown, CA
79° F - Sunny

Cole Hamels, LHP (0-0) v. Clayton Kershaw, LHP (0-0)

The opener of the National League Championship Series should be a good one, as the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers square off in their second consecutive NLCS. Both teams will send young, ace lefties to the mound in Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw, respectively. With great weather in southern California and a setting sun, the game should be a low-scoring affair. With home field advantage and a great bullpen, the Dodgers would seem to have an advantage in this first game.

Starting Pitcher: Cole Hamels, Phillies
Cole Hamels will take the hill for the Phillies in this important game one. The 25-year old is a new father and will hopefully have his focus back for this game, after a rough first outing in the playoffs against the Rockies. Hamels builds his success off of his low-90s fastball, which makes his changeup devastating. He also features a show-me curveball to keep hitters honest. Control is the name of the game for Hamels, who must throw strikes early in order to get ahead of hitters and keep his pitch count down. He tossed 193.2 innings this year, so unlike last season, he didn't have to shoulder as big a work load down the stretch.

Hamels is looking to replicate his recent success against the Los Angeles Dodgers' batting order. Last season in the NLCS, Hamels defeated the Dodgers twice en route to the MVP honors. In 2009, his good fortunes continued, as he went 2-0 in 16.0 innings with a 0.56 ERA. Current Dodgers are hitting just .240 off of Hamels in 194 career plate appearances. The right-handers in the Dodgers lineup, especially Manny Ramirez (.385 BA) and Matt Kemp (.412 BA) have historically hit Hamels hard. Meanwhile, the lefties like Andre Ethier (.188 BA) have understandably poor numbers versus the Phillies' southpaw.

Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw will make the start for the Los Angeles Dodgers in this evening's game. The 21-year old will make one of the biggest starts of his life against a powerful Phillies lineup. Pitching at home, Kershaw has had dominant numbers and will need to command all of his breaking pitches early. Walks hurt the young lefty so he will need to eliminate them and throw strikes. He threw a career high 171.0 innings and its uncertain if the young hurler will be impacted by his workload. Kershaw doesn't allow many long balls, with a very favorable home park, so the key will be sustaining rallies against him.

This season against the Phillies, Kershaw got roughed up a bit. He lost both games that he faced the Phils, and posted a 5.23 ERA with seven walks in 10.1 innings. Despite this, the Phillies as a whole do not have great numbers against the lefty, with a combined .222 average in 89 career plate appearances against him. In limited appearances, only Chase Utley (.273 BA, 1 HR) has homered off of him, while Phillies Ryan Howard (.111 BA) and Shane Victorino (.111 BA) have really struggled. The pressure will really be on the whole lineup to be patient and work walks.

Starting Lineup: Philadelphia Phillies
Statistics versus Clayton Kershaw
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS (3/12, 0 HR, 1 K)
2. Shane Victorino, CF (1/9, 0 HR, 2 K)
3. Chase Utley, 2B (3/11, 1 HR, 4 K)
4. Ryan Howard, 1B (1/9, 0 HR, 3 K)
5. Jayson Werth, RF (3/10, 0 HR, 2 K)
6. Raul Ibanez, LF (2/5, 0 HR, 3 K)
7. Pedro Feliz, 3B (2/5, 0 HR, 0 K)
8. Carlos Ruiz, C (0/2, 0 HR, 1 K)

Starting Lineup: Los Angeles Dodgers
Statistics versus Cole Hamels
1. Rafael Furcal, SS (1/14, 0 HR, 2 K)
2. Andre Ethier, RF (3/16, 0 HR, 4 K)
3. Manny Ramirez, LF (5/13, 1 HR, 1 K)
4. Matt Kemp, CF (7/17, 0 HR, 5 K)
5. Casey Blake, 3B (5/20, 0 HR, 2 K)
6. James Loney, 1B (5/17, 1 HR, 4 K)
7. Ronnie Belliard, 2B (7/26, 2 HR, 8 K)
8 Russell Martin, C (3/16, 1 HR, 5 K)

Phillies NLCS Previews
Overview, Rotations, Bullpens, Hitters
Game Previews: One, Two, Three, Four, Five
Game Recaps: One, Two, Three, Four, Five

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