Monday, October 19, 2009

Phillies Preview: NLCS Game Four

National League Championship Series - Game Four
Monday October 19, 2009 - 8:07pm ET
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
48° F - Clear

Randy Wolf, LHP (0-0, 0.00) v. Joe Blanton, RHP (0-0, 0.00)

After a blow out in game three, the Philadelphia Phillies can put a strangle hold on the National League Championship Series on Monday night with a win in game four over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers will need to win to even the series and guarantee a trip back to Los Angeles later in the NLCS. In the important game four, former Phillie Randy Wolf will face off with righty Joe Blanton. It will be considerably warmer than last night, picture perfect October baseball weather.

Starting Pitcher: Randy Wolf, Dodgers
Randy Wolf, the former Phillies pitcher earlier this decade, will make the start for the Dodgers in the crucial fourth game. Wolf will be pitching in familiar territory, but with an unfriendly crowd. The crafty lefty veteran mixes a low 90s fastball with breaking pitches and a changeup. He will need to locate the fastball to build his arsenal of "junkballs" to be effective. The 32-year old had a very effective season with that methodology, winning 11 games and posting a very impressive 3.23 ERA. Wolf was especially good on the road this season and though he pitches to contact, he posted solid strikeout rates.

Against the Phillies, Wolf was not great. He split two decisions with his former team, posting a very high 5.11 ERA. In his career against Phillies hitters, Wolf has allowed a .243 batting average against in 119 plate appearances. The newer Phillies have the most appearances against Wolf and have also posted the best numbers against him. Pedro Feliz has a .294 batting average with three home runs off of him. Meanwhile, Raul Ibanez (.273 BA) and Carlos Ruiz (.667 BA) also have solid numbers against Wolf. Clearly, tonight's matchup will hinge on how Wolf fares with the big lefties in the Phillies order.

Starting Pitcher: Joe Blanton, Phillies
Joe Blanton will be making the first start of this postseason tonight. Though he did appear in several games earlier in the playoffs, the big righty will make a very important start against the Dodgers. This season, Blanton was one of the Phillies' most consistent starters, winning 12 games and posting a respectable ERA. Blanton works with a low 90s fastball and a couple of breaking pitches and must have pinpoint location to be effective. Blanton typically gets about one strikeout per inning, but he is at his best when he pitches to contact and keeps the ball down in the zone.

This season against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Blanton took a no decision after tossing six solid innings of one-run ball against them. Lifetime against their hitters, Blanton has weaker numbers, allowing a .295 batting average against in 154 plate appearances. Especially dangerous to Blanton are the hitters in the heart of the lineup. Manny Ramirez (.560 BA, 1 HR) and Andre Ethier (.455 BA, 2 HR) have especially good numbers against him. The 28-year old will need to mix speeds and hit the lower corners against a free-swining Dodgers team.

Starting Lineup: Los Angeles Dodgers
Statistics versus Joe Blanton
1. Rafael Furcal, SS (0/4, 0 HR, 1 K)
2. Matt Kemp, CF (2/11, 0 HR, 3 K)
3. Andre Ethier, RF (5/11, 2 HR, 4 K)
4. Manny Ramirez, LF (14/25, 1 HR, 4 K)
5. James Loney, 1B (5/8, 0 HR, 0 K)
6. Ronnie Belliard, 2B (3/8, 0 HR, 0 K)
7. Russell Martin, C (2/7, 0 HR, 2 K)
8. Casey Blake, 3B (1/21, 0 HR, 7 K)

Starting Lineup: Philadelphia Phillies
Statistics versus Randy Wolf
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS (3/6, 1 HR, 0 K)
2. Shane Victorino, CF (3/9, 1 HR, 1 K)
3. Chase Utley, 2B (1/8, 0 HR, 4 K)
4. Ryan Howard, 1B (1/9, 0 HR, 4 K)
5. Jayson Werth, RF (1/9, 1 HR, 3 K)
6. Raul Ibanez, LF (3/11, 0 HR, 3 K)
7. Pedro Feliz, 3B (5/17, 3 HR, 4 K)
8. Carlos Ruiz, C (4/6, 1 HR, 0 K)

Phillies NLCS Previews
Overview, Rotations, Bullpens, Hitters
Game Previews: One, Two, Three, Four, Five
Game Recaps: One, Two, Three, Four, Five

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