There are 20 games left for the Phillies this season and their magic number stands at 13. That means that destiny is firmly in their grasp. But the outcome of this season is far from certain. The Phillies must fight for every win and show that they can play well as a team as they enter the post season. With the third best record in the National League, the Phillies can really help themselves by winning a few extra games down the stretch to secure home field advantage.
Currently, the Phillies are 82-60, which is 22 games over .500 and represents a .577 winning percentage. They are on pace to win 94 games with a 12-8 finish, and end with their best record since 1993. As a point of reference, last season, the Phillies were 78-64 at this point and went 14-6 to finish the season. Such a finish this season would be more than enough to clinch the division and home field advantage for the first round at least. But even more important than their record will be their confidence and their effectiveness heading into the playoffs.
The race is on, as the Phillies, Cardinals, and Dodgers all lead their respective divisions. Barring a dramatic turn-around, all three of these teams should hang on and make the playoffs. That leaves the wild card to be determined, for which the Rockies, Giants, Marlins, and Braves are in hot pursuit. If the playoffs were to start today, the Dodgers would play host to the Phillies and the Cardinals would welcome the Rockies in the divisional round. If the Phillies advanced, they would be in St. Louis or hosting the Rockies for the National League Championship Series. The World Series will of course feature American League home field advantage as a result of the All-Star Game outcome.
But with the playoffs looming, which teams would the Phillies want to face and which would give them the biggest problems? The goal for the Phillies is to win, no matter who their opposition is. However, the circumstances of their opponent will be determined by how the NL West plays out. In the first round of the playoffs, the team with the best record gets the wild card as their opponent, regardless of record, unless they are from the same division. Therefore, unless the Phillies surpass the Cardinals' record, they won't get the wild card and will likely play the winner of the NL West. Here's a breakdown of their potential playoff foes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (86-59)
The Phillies and Dodgers squared off last season in a memorable NLCS that the Phils took in five games. This year, the Dodgers started out hot but have played mediocre since the All-Star break. Still, you know this team would love a chance to avenge last year's defeat. The Dodgers are led on offense by Manny Ramirez and by their young aces, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. The two teams played seven games this season, with the Dodgers taking four, despite being out-scored by the Phillies. This might be the ideal (and most likely) first-round opponent for the Phillies, especially if the Phils can overtake them for home field advantage.
St. Louis Cardinals (85-60)
The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the National League right now. Since acquiring Matt Holliday, the team is running away with the NL Central. They feature a tandem of fearsome power hitters in Holliday and Albert Pujols, as well as a pair of Cy Young award candidates in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. The Cards would be a terrifying opponent to face, but that might be inevitable. If they do meet, it will most likely be in the NLCS. This season, the Phillies took four of five from them, including two wins with Matt Holliday in their lineup.
Colorado Rockies (82-63)
In 2007, the Rockies swept the Phillies out of the playoffs on their way to an NL Pennant. Times have changed and they are vastly different than they were two years ago. However, they would still be a formidable opponent for the Phillies. But the Phils would certainly like the chance to exact some revenge for the 2007 series. The Rockies are built around Troy Tulowitzki on offense and an over-achieving pitching rotation headed up by Jason Marquis. Unless the Rockies find a way to win the West, it's unlikely that these teams would meet before the NLCS. The Phillies took four of six games during the regular season.
San Francisco Giants (79-66)
The San Francisco Giants can pitch. The represent the team that no one wants to see in the first round of the playoffs in a short series. The Giants are led completely by the pitching of reigning Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum and co-ace Matt Cain. Their bullpen is also rock solid and they might have just enough offense to win some ball games. However, the Giants find themselves several games off the pace for the wild card and it's starting to seem less likely that they will make the playoffs. If they do, they wouldn't likely make it to the Phillies until the NLCS. This season, the Phillies were handled by the Giants and lost four of seven games.
Florida Marlins (76-68)
The Phillies are very familiar with their division rivals. However, if the Marlins do stage a furious comeback and win the wild card, they cannot meet the Phillies until the NLCS for certain. The Marlins are led by superstar short stop Hanley Ramirez and a young pitching staff featuring Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. This would be a tough opponent for the Phillies, as the Marlins can hit and pitch well. This season, the Phillies lead the series 7-5 thus far, but the teams play six more times. How the teams play in those games can have a major impact on how the playoff picture shapes up.
Atlanta Braves (75-68)
The Atlanta Braves represent the longest shot to make the playoffs on this list. Still, their record dictates that they have an outside shot at the wild card. Again, the Phillies and Braves would be unable to meet in the playoffs until the NLCS round. Nevertheless, should they make it there and face the Phillies in the playoffs, it would be very difficult to favor the Phils in that series. The Braves can pitch with anyone, including the Giants, and are led by star pitchers Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez. This season, the Braves have taken nine of 15 from the Phillies with three more to be played.
No comments:
Post a Comment