Phillies Breakdown: Cole's Command

Coming off a post season in which Cole Hamels was virtually unhittable, he has stumbled through 2009. Of course many factors may play into this, including the increased work-load from last season, in which he threw a combined 262.1 innings. He also worked through minor arm issues in spring training. The result has been flashes of his typical brilliance, mixed in with a number of very average starts. But what's really going on with Hamels?

Hamels' peripheral statistics are very close to his career averages, but let's take a look at them anyway:

2009: 23 G, 4.69 ERA, 134.1 IP, 1.325 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9, 7.6 K/9

Career: 107 G, 3.68 ERA, 677.1 IP, 1.174 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9, 8.4 K/9

Aside from the inflated ERA, the most striking statistic from 2009 is not Hamels' lower strikeout ratio (which had been very similar in 2008). It is the number of base runners that he has allowed compared to previous years. His WHIP (Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched) is substantially higher this season. Hamels led all of major league baseball in WHIP in 2007 (1.082), so he has potential. However, his walks per nine innings is actual lower this year (2.1 BB/9) than his career average (2.3 BB/9). Thus, the important stat is his hits per nine innings which is up this year (9.8 H/9) over his career average (8.2 H/9).

Combined with his relatively low strikeout ratio (again, he was successful with a similar rate last season), the higher number of hits allowed is alarming. This ultimately means that Hamels is missing fewer bats. We have seen him falter on several occasions with high pitch counts, as left-handed hitters continuously foul off pitches before the plate appearance is completed. But for a pitcher with such a dominant fastball and changeup, and a curveball that is improving, why is Hamels getting so much contact?

Over his career, Hamels has surrendered an opponent's batting average of .242 which is very respectable for a starter. However, this season, opponents are basically going to town on Hamels with a .278 batting average. Part of this can be explained by the luck of the hitters, as Hamels has yielded an unusually high batting average of balls in play (BABIP) this season at .317. The league average for BABIP is usually right around .300 while Hamels for his career has been at a .284 BABIP. As a result, some balls that have been put in play on Hamels have dropped for hits that haven't in the past.

So what can the Phillies co-ace do? Hamels really needs to work on his pitch sequencing. Assuming he isn't going to improve his velocity on his fastball, there is not much to gain. His changeup is already highly deceptive and is already regarded as one of the best in baseball. And his curveball is more of a show-me pitch than a put-away pitch. Thus, Hamels will need to make sure he is really fooling hitters. Hitters can really sit on the fastball and adjust to the changeup, now that he has been around the league for several years.

Better pitch sequencing and command will enable Hamels to lower his 3.87 pitches per batter faced, back down to his career average of 3.80 (the league average is about 3.82). This might seem minor, but the fewer pitches Hamels throws, the deeper into games he can go. This will allow him to impact games deeper, save the bullpen arms, and factor in more decisions (nine no-decisions this season). No one disputes Hamels' stuff. It's his mental approach to the hitter that needs to be adjusted. If he can do this, it doesn't matter what his stats were; they will once again be great moving forward.