Friday, October 9, 2009

Phillies Preview: NLDS Game Three (updated)

National League Division Series - Game Three
Philadelphia Phillies (1-1) v. Colorado Rockies (1-1)
Sunday October 11, 2009 - 10:07pm ET
Coors Field, Denver, CO
41° F - Cold

J.A. Happ, LHP (12-4, 2.93) v. Jason Hammel, RHP (8-10, 4.33)

With a weather postponement on Saturday night, the National League Division Series will resume, tied at one game a piece. The Philadelphia Phillies will travel to Denver to take on the Colorado Rockies in a pivotal game three. After a change, the Phillies will send lefty J.A. Happ to the mound to oppose the Rockies' righty Jason Hammel. With the game time set for the evening, the weather will almost certainly come into play, as forecasts call for very cold temperatures and snow. The Rockies may have some momentum, returning home after splitting the games in Philly, but they will be facing the best road team in baseball this year.

Starting Pitcher: J.A. Happ, Phillies
Jay Happ was not initially going to start game three, but due to the game being pushed back a day, he gets the start. And that might just give the Phillies the edge in this game, as the Rockies have notoriously struggled against lefties this season. Happ features a sneaky fastball along with a changeup and slider. The 26-year old rookie typically pitches to contact and must keep his pitches down to avoid getting hurt, but has the ability to strike batters out in key situations. The lefty was especially effective on the road (1.99 ERA) and with runners in scoring position (.158 BA).

This year against the Rockies, Jay Happ delivered the signature performance of his season, shutting them out on four hits while striking out ten. He has limited postseason experience, but pitches with a lot of poise. In his career against the Rockies, Happ has delivered a .139 opponent batting average in 39 career plate appearacnes. Dexter Fowler has a double and a walk against Happ, but not many of the other Rockies have much of anything to build off of from Happ. Unless the Rockies can make some dramatic adjustments against a tough left-hander, they could be in for a long night against the Phillies.

Starting Pitcher: Jason Hammel, Rockies
Jason Hammel will get the surprise nod in game three for the Rockies. The big righty had a decent season for the Rockies, but doesn't have overwhelmingly good stuff. Hammel features a fastball, which he throws over 60% of the time and also throws a curveball and slider, and will show a changeup occasionally. He reaches the low 90s with his fastball and he gets some decent movement from his breaking pitches. This season, the 27-year old threw 176.2 innings, by far the most in his career, and he has no playoff pitching experience.

Hammel appeared in two games against the Phillies this season, winning his only start. However, he was the beneficiary of solid run support, as he was not especially sharp in the game. In his career against Phillies hitters, they are hitting .385 in 57 plate appearances. Matt Stairs has hit a pair of home runs off of Hammel in his career, but he still will not start. Hammel does have a much higher ERA (5.73) at Coors Field this year but does not have marked differences in his righty-lefty splits.

Starting Lineup: Philadelphia Phillies
Statistics versus Jason Hammel
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS (2/5, 1 HR, 0 K)
2. Shane Victorino, CF (3/5, 0 HR, 0 K)
3. Chase Utley, 2B (1/4, 0 HR, 1 K)
4. Ryan Howard, 1B (0/4, 0 HR, 1 K)
5. Jayson Werth, RF (1/4, 0 HR, 1 K)
6. Raul Ibanez, LF (4/8, 1 HR, 2 K)
7. Pedro Feliz, 3B (2/4, 0 HR, 1 K)
8. Carlos Ruiz, C (1/3, 0 HR, 1 K)

Starting Lineup: Colorado Rockies
Statistics versus J.A. Happ
1. Carlos Gonzalez, LF (0/0 BA, 0 HR, 0 K)
2. Dexter Fowler, CF (1/3, 0 HR, 1 K)
3. Todd Helton, 1B (1/5, 0 HR, 0 K)
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS (0/5, 0 HR, 3 K)
5. Yorvit Torrealba, C (0/3, 0 HR, 0 K)
6. Garrett Atkins, 3B (1/3, 0 HR, 0 K)
7. Ryan Spilborghs, RF (0/3, 0 HR, 1 K)
8. Clint Barmes, 2B (0/4, 0 HR, 1 K)

Phillies NLDS Previews
Game Previews: One, Two, Three, Four
Game Recaps: One, Two, Three, Four

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