Sunday, September 20, 2009

The Most Prolific Run-Producer Today

Ryan Howard has been called many things in his career. In 2005, he was called the Rookie of the Year. In 2006, it was the Most Valuable Player. Over his big league career, which has only spanned about four and a half full seasons, Howard has also been a player of the month, an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, a Home Run Champion, a Hank Aaron award winner, a Home Run Derby Champion, and a World Champion. He has been producing runs and homering at a prolific rate. And there's no end in sight.

For his career, Howard has already eclipsed the 200 home run and 600 RBI marks. He was the fastest to 200 long balls, and the fastest since a guy named Ted Williams to 600 RBI. Howard owns the Phillies' single-season record for home runs, annihilating Mike Schmidt's previous record of 48. Credit smaller ball parks and juicier balls that play to the modern-day fan's desire to see majestic home runs, but Ryan Howard could hit any ball out of any park, just about any time he wants to. At a tender age of 29, Howard could conceivably have another six to eight years of continued production at this rate.

Let's take a look at Howard through his first six seasons, through action on September 19th:

2004: 42 PA, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .282 BA, .564 SLG
2005: 348 PA, 22 HR, 63 RBI, .288 BA, .567 SLG
2006: 704 PA, 58 HR, 149 RBI, .313 BA, .659 SLG
2007: 648 PA, 47 HR, 136 RBI, .268 BA, .584 SLG
2008: 700 PA, 48 HR, 146 RBI, .251 BA, .543 SLG
2009: 641 PA, 41 HR, 123 RBI, .271 BA, .564 SLG

For a player who made his major league debut at the age of 24, and didn't begin playing regularly until he was almost 26, we can only wonder what Howard's production could have been, had he been promoted earlier. Here is his career averages for a 162 game season:

162 Game Avg.: 696 PA, 49 HR, 140 RBI, .277 BA, .585 SLG

Those numbers are enough to have Howard in an MVP conversation every single year. And for the past four seasons, Howard has found himself in the top 10 in voting for the MVP. But extrapolate those numbers over the next few years, and you will start to see the truly stunning numbers. For argument's sake, let's be conservative and assume that after 2009, Howard maintains this production for six more seasons. If Ryan Howard can stay healthy and do that, he projects to reach 517 home runs and 1,475 runs batted in by the end of the 2015 season. With those numbers, he has to at least be in the conversation for the Hall of Fame.

Howard recently joined Sammy Sosa and Ken Griffey, Jr., two players synonymous with power with the second-longest string of 40-homer, 120-RBI seasons. A guy named Babe Ruth put together seven straight seasons of the kind. But with the way Howard is going, it is not unreasonable that he can duplicate a 40/120 season for four more years and break the Babe's record. Howard is also the second Phillie to record four straight 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons, after Chuck Klein did it nearly 80 years ago. He sits sixth on the Phillies' all-time home run list, and projects to catapult into second place in just one more season.

For now, however, Howard is not thinking about the Hall of Fame or 500 home runs. Right now, it's all about winning, which makes his feats that much more incredible. Howard has produced these numbers on a winning team, that is consistently in playoff and championship contention. There is no harder place to play, than in front of the passionate Philadelphia fans. And Ryan has handled it all with a gentle class that is rarely seen from prima donna athletes, especially power hitters. Right now, Howard is the most prolific run-producer in baseball. If he keeps it up, he has a chance to become a legendary run-producing icon.

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