Phillies Breakdown: Sagging Offense

Since the All-Star break, the Phillies are 13-10 but have only three wins in their last 11 games. So in this time of mediocrity, who can be blamed? The starting pitching hasn't been perfect, but it has had its moments. And for the most part, the starters have kept the team in the game. Perhaps the bullpen should be blamed. But the Phillies really haven't surrendered any late-inning leads during this stretch; they haven't had any. The blame lands fully and rightfully on the offense, and that means the big three lefties.

Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez were all All-Stars this season and lead the team with home runs and runs batted in. Here are their numbers on the season:

Utley: 107 G, 477 PA, .294 BA, 23 HR, 72 RBI, .415 OBP, .529 SLG

Howard: 108 G, 477 PA, .263 BA, 26 HR, 80 RBI, .344 OBP, .522 SLG

Ibanez: 85 G, 379 PA, .302 BA, 26 HR, 75 RBI, .367 OBP, .612 SLG

But the three lefty swingers have struggled immensely since returning from the break. There have been very few clutch RBIs and even fewer long-balls. Here are their stats after the All-Star break (through 8/9/09):

Utley: 23 G, 103 PA, .226 BA, 3 HR, 11 RBI, .359 OBP, .369 SLG

Howard: 23 G, 99 PA, .284 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .354 OBP, .489 SLG

Ibanez: 22 G, 90 PA, .278 BA, 4 HR, 15 RBI, .367 OBP, .494 SLG

The most alarming of these statistics are the on-base and slugging percentages for which, each of the three is drastically below their season average (except for Howard's on-base percentage). Chase Utley has an uncharacteristically low batting average and despite a lack of a prolonged dry spell, he is not producing nearly as many multi-hit games (2) as you would expect from him. Without a doubt, the heart of the order can take most of the blame for the recent mediocrity, after the team reached its high water mark of 18 games above .500 on July 28th.

Ignore home runs for a moment, and assume it is irrelevant how runs are driven in. This run production accounts for 39 runs driven in, during the span of 23 games (1.69 RBI/game). The trio was producing at a higher rate (1.73 RBI/game) before the All-Star break despite the fact that Ibanez missed nearly a month on the disabled list. Factor in the games he missed, and the heart of the Phillies order provided 1.88 RBI/game. During a handful of games, this trend might go unnoticed as other contributors could fill in the gaps. But for almost a month now, the production has been trending downward.

As the team reaches the stretch run of the season, one thing is certain: the offense, which is the clear strength of the team, needs to step it up. Before the All-Star break, Utley, Howard, and Ibanez contributed almost 41% of the team's RBI total (188/460). Since that time, they barely reach 36% of that rate (39/109). The Phillies, a team notorious for finishing strong, are in need of another dominant August and September. If the big three can pick up the slack, then there's no telling how far this team can go into October. If not, the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies might have already peaked.