Phillies Breakdown: Projecting the Record

With the season coming down to the stretch, the Phillies remaining opponents will be crucial for locking up the NL East and also matching up for the playoffs. Of these, the Phillies have played every team in the National League except for the Houston Astros. So with 55 games left in the regular season, let's take a look at their upcoming schedule (including two more games at home against the Marlins):

• 2 vs. Florida Marlins 56-53
• 3 at Chicago Cubs 57-50
• 3 at Atlanta Braves 56-54
• 3 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 50-60
• 4 at New York Mets 51-58
• 3 at Pittsburgh Pirates 45-64
• 3 vs. Atlanta Braves 56-54
• 3 vs. San Francisco Giants 60-49
• 4 at Houston Astros 54-55
• 3 at Washington Nationals 38-72
• 4 vs. New York Mets 51-58
• 3 vs. Washington Nationals 38-72
• 3 at Atlanta Braves 56-54
• 3 at Florida Marlins 56-53
• 4 at Milwaukee Brewers 54-55
• 4 vs. Houston Astros 54-55
• 3 vs. Florida Marlins 56-53

Now let's take a look at the cumulative records for the Phillies and their opponents. Here's how the remaining 55 games break down, weighted by the number of games to be played:

Remaining Games: 55
Phillies Win Pct.: .570
Opponents' Win Pct.: .478

Home Games: 29
Home Win Pct.: .518
Opponents' Road Win Pct.: .477

Away Games: 26
Away Win Pct.: .627
Opponents' Home Win Pct.: .480

Record vs. Remaining Opponents: 68-49

Phillies Win Pct. vs. Opponents: .581

The Phillies are currently 61-45. And while many things can happen between now and October 4th, let's extrapolate their record based on the statistics listed above. Here is the resulting Phillies record, based on each of the stats:

Phillies Win Pct. (.570): 92-70

Opponents' Win Pct. (.478): 90-72

Phillies Win Pct. vs. Opponents (.581): 93-70

As a result of these calculations, it appears that the Phillies should finish the season close to the same record as they had last season (92-70). And of course, having no record against the Astros this season, many things could be different based on the results of those seven games. But, enough with the hypothetical, it's time to actually play the games, one day at a time, starting with tonight at home against the Marlins.