Chicks Don't Just Dig the Long Ball

The 2009 version of the Philadelphia Phillies leads the National League in home runs with 181, as of August 27th. Their home run rate is 3.7% of all plate appearances, which is way over the league average of 2.5%. Clearly, the team is built around the power game. However, despite having such great home run production, the team frequently finds itself in close games, in which they are unable to tack on runs. As a result, there are a number of games that are lost or closer than they need to be. Are the Phillies too reliant on home runs to score?

The common misconception is that the Phillies hit more home runs at home. In fact the opposite is true, as they have hit 91 homers on the road, and 90 at home. While they do sport a higher percentage of home runs on flyballs (10.1%) than the rest of the league (7.2%), you would expect that from a team that features some of the game's most fearsome power hitters. The real splits come into play in their wins and losses. In wins, the Phillies have hit 128 homers versus 53 in losses. This means their home run rate in wins is 1.75 HR/G and 1.02 HR/G in losses. That alone shows the utter dependence on the long ball. If the Phillies hit one homer, they will most likely lose. If they hit two, they will most likely win.

The Phillies have scored 657 runs this season, which is also tops in the league. This means that they have scored 3.63 runs per homer. The Phillies average 5.256 runs per game and 1.448 home runs per game. At first glance, these look like great stats, considering the team is the top scoring team in the NL. But subtract the runs produced purely from the player hitting the home run and the Phillies generate 3.808 runs per game, which is actually quite low. With a team batting average that is 11th in the league at .258, the Phillies can be shut down easily without the long ball.

But there are plenty of teams with mediocre batting averages that can score without homers. So how do they do it? The Phillies have a great on-base percentage because their power hitters are willing to take walks. The team on-base percentage is .337, which is seventh, and good enough for a base runner per inning, on average. And despite the tendencies of the team to strike out, they put the ball in play far more often than people assume. As a team, they have struck out 897 times, which is ninth in the league.

The answer to the cause of the Phillies run-scoring problems is a mixture of things:

1. Unluckiness: The Phillies have a .285 average of balls in play, much lower than the league average of .299. A lot of would-be (non-homer) hits are not falling in this season. However, this stat also accentuates the Phillies struggles when they are not hitting bombs.
2. No Clutch Hitting: The Phillies struggle in every clutch situation on offense. It has really shown recently. Even their homer-clutchness struggles based on the fact that only 53 of their homers (29%) have come in the seventh inning or later.
3. Lack of Line Drives: Only 19% of the balls put in play (excluding bunts) are line drives. However, as expected, they have a way higher batter average on those types of hits. With pop ups and ground outs, the pure hitting aspect of their game is missing.

So where is the solution here? You can't make the Phillies stop hitting home runs. It's in their nature to pepper the stands with souvenirs. However, you can change the mentality at the plate. There is no excuse for not getting a run home from third with less than two outs. There needs to be more sacrifice flies, RBI-ground outs, and all-around better situational hitting. The Phillies don't tend to make a lot of hard-hit outs.

It's time to get back to small-ball, especially late in games when tack-on runs are crucial. With great speed at the top of the order, the Phillies need to hit-and-run more. Bunting with the lower portion of the order will maximize scoring opportunities. And there needs to be more runners being moved up by all hitters. They need to be able to score in all ways, at all times. They must change the 'live and die by the three-run homer' mentality that they have and they will be better. Often times, it's not the three runs you don't score, it's the one run you don't get home. They have lost 14 games by one run. The Phillies are good enough to score that one run in every inning of every game they play. They just need to do it once in a while.