Blue Print to Win the East

The Philadelphia Phillies have completed 122 games this season and hold a solid 72-50 record. But that means there is only a quarter of the season left. And despite a seven game lead over the Braves and an eight game lead over the Marlins, there is still a lot of baseball to be played. But there is very little margin for error. Just ask the 2007 Mets. And the 2008 Mets. With 40 games to go, the Phillies' magic number is 33. They hold their destiny in their own hands, which is all you could ask for. But ladies and gentlemen, we have a sprint to the finish line.

The Phillies have a .590 win percentage this season, which is their highest since 1993 when the team won 97 ball games. Let's take a look at the Phillies in recent years through three quarters of the season:

2009: 72-50, .590, 1st Place, -- GB

2008: 65-57, .533, 2nd Place, 1.0 GB

2007: 65-57, .533, 2nd Place, 4.0 GB

2006: 60-62, .492, 2nd Place, 14.0 GB

The 2009 version of the team is on pace for 96 wins this season and could conceivably put away the division in three weeks. So, they are seven games better than the pace they set in their championship season. If they heat up again in September, they could win 100 games. But what will it take to get there?

The first order of business is to take care of the weaker opponents. This means a total of 13 games against the Pirates, Nationals, and Mets. The Phillies need 10 wins to come from those "soft" games. They play seven of those games at home and six of them against the Nationals, who are the worst team in baseball this season.

The next key for the Phils will be to play well against playoff contenders. They have six games remaining against each of their division foes, the Braves and the Marlins, including the season finale at home against the Fish. Three more games will be against the San Francisco Giants, who can really pitch well. Any of these teams could be a potential playoff opponent, so in those 15 games, the Phillies will want to win at least nine.

Finally, there are 12 games on the schedule against the fringe teams, Milwaukee Brewers and Houston Astros. These are comprised of three four-game sets, including two on the road. While both the Brewers and Astros are hovering around .500, they are only a hot streak away from competition. There's a reason these teams are frequently called "spoilers" so the Phillies will need to win eight of these trap games.

Add it all up and in theory, the Phillies will be winning 27 and losing 13 the rest of the way. Interestingly enough, this is the same total they had in their final 40 games last season. If they are able to win at least this many games, they will be 99-63 on the season, a .611 win percentage. Of course, many things could alter this course and, if and when the Phillies lock up the NL East, they could pull back from trying to win every game. But the stretch run is what makes baseball fun. The Phillies have the blue print to win the East for the third straight season. Now they just need to go do it.